Chris Powell: Why it’s so hard to believe that crime is down in Conn.; social disintegration continues

MANC HESTER, Conn.

Few people in Connecticut have the impression that there recently has been less crime in the state. Most people seem to feel that crime here is exploding.

But last week the state Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection -- the state police -- reported that crime in Connecticut is down on an annual basis: 4 percent overall, with a 3 percent reduction in violent crime, a 13 percent reduction in murders, and an 18 percent reduction in robberies.

What explains the dichotomy?

The leader of the Republican minority in the state House of Representatives, Vincent Candelora, of North Branford, interviewed last week by WTIC-AM1080's Will Marotti, said plainly of the crime report, "Nobody believes those numbers."

There may be a good reason not to believe them. After all, four months after an outside audit concluded that state troopers may have issued thousands of fake traffic tickets, perhaps to sabotage an effort to discern racial discrimination in traffic enforcement, the state police still haven't produced an explanation. While Gov. Ned Lamont hasn't publicly criticized anyone about the scandal, he is seeking replacements for the department's top two executives.

But the public's disbelief and the loss of state police credibility don't mean that the crime numbers have been falsified like the traffic tickets. The disbelief may arise from other factors.

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Social disintegration is worsening and becoming more distressing even if it doesn't always result in arrests and crime data.

More children than ever are skipping school and more parents than ever are letting them. Even before schools were closed during the COVID, epidemic student performance was crashing, diminishing young people's job qualifications and earning potential, while Connecticut's manufacturers complain that they can't find skilled workers for thousands of jobs.

Homelessness and drug abuse are rising again. Contempt for law and decency seems to be rising as well, with crimes becoming more brazen even if not more numerous. Car thefts and shoplifting are up, and reckless and discourteous driving and road rage seem to have exploded.

Severe inflation has made times harder and people seem more confrontational. Last week alone Connecticut police officers shot and killed three men in separate incidents, all appearing to involve men who threatened an officer with guns.

Last week the state's biggest teacher union complained again about disrespectful students, and the Connecticut Hospital Association complained that patients and visitors increasingly are assaulting hospital staff. But arresting students and maintaining order and learning in schools have become politically incorrect, and while the hospitals said they aren't going to take the abuse anymore, let's see if they start to call the police.

Connecticut may remain, as Governor Lamont said in response to the crime report, "one of the safest states in the country," but the comparison with other states is little consolation. Connecticut long was better than other states, and now many people feel as if the state is falling apart, even if not quite as fast as the rest of the country.

Maybe the crime report and public perceptions don't really conflict as much as they seem to. For the report covers calendar 2022 and social disintegration may have worsened greatly in the 10 months since.

And maybe journalism has made social disintegration seem worse than it is. For the substance of journalism in the state has been much reduced in recent years as its audience has been fractured by social media and civic engagement has declined. These trends have diminished the profitability of news organizations and caused them to eliminate staff, especially for matters of government, and to devote more coverage to crime, accidents, and fires, which is usually easier and less expensive while it crowds out more important news.

"If it bleeds, it leads" long has been the rule for local television news and it is being followed more diligently. This may hold on to audiences but also may give a misleading impression that encourages people to move to Florida. But that state has plenty of crime, accidents and fires, too, even if victims there don't freeze to death. 
    
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years (CPowell@cox.net).