John O. Harney: 'Emergency remote'; a WPA for humanists?; defense workers kept on job

From The New England Journal of Higher Education (NEJHE), a service of The New England Board of Higher Education (nebhe.org):

A few items from the quarantine …

Wisdom from Zoom. COVID-19 has been a boon for Zoom and Slack (for people panicked by too many and too-slow emails). Last week, I zoomed into the Harvard Graduate School of Education (HGSE) Leadership Series conversation with Southern New Hampshire University (SNHU) President Paul LeBlanc and HGSE Dean Bridget Long. LeBlanc notes that the online programs adopted by colleges and universities everywhere in the age of COVID-19 are very different from SNHU’s renowned online platform. Unlike SNHU, most institutions have launched “emergency remote” work to help students stay on track. Despite worries in some quarters about academic quality, LeBlanc says the quick transition online is not about relaxing standards, but ratcheting up care and compassion for suddenly dislocated students. The visionary president notes that just as telemedicine is boosting access to healthcare during the pandemic, online learning could boost access to education.

Among other observations, LeBlanc explains that “time” is the enemy for traditional students who have to pause classes when, for example, their child gets sick. If they are students in a well-designed online program, they can avoid delays in their education despite personal disruptions. He also believes students will want to come rushing back to campuses after COVID-19 dissipates, but with the recession, he wonders if they’ll be able to afford it. Oh and, by the way, LeBlanc ventures that it’s unlikely campuses will open in the fall without a lot more coronavirus testing.

Summer learning loss becomes COVID learning loss. That’s the concern of people like Chris Minnich, CEO of the nonprofit assessment and research organization NWEA, founded in Oregon as the Northwest Evaluation Association. The group predicts that when students finally head back to school next fall (presumably), they are likely to retain about 70% of this year’s gains in reading, compared with a typical school year, and less than 50% in math. The concern over achievement milestones reminds me of the fretting over SATs and ACTs as well as high-stakes high school tests, being postponed. Merrie Najimy, president of the Massachusetts Teachers Association, notes that the pause “provides all of us with an opportunity to rethink the testing requirements.”

Another WPA for Humanists? Modern Language Association Executive Director Paula M. Krebs recently reminded readers that during the Great Depression, the Works Progress Administration, though commonly associated with building roads and bridges, also employed writers, researchers, historians, artists, musicians, actors and other cultural figures. Given COVID-19, “this moment calls for a new WPA that employs those with humanities expertise in partnership with scientists, health-care practitioners, social scientists, and business, to help shape the public understanding of the changes our collective culture is undergoing,” writes Krebs.

Research could help right now. News of the University of New Hampshire garnering $6 million from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to build and test an instrument to monitor space weather reminded me of when research prowess was recognized as a salient feature of New England’s higher education leadership. That was mostly before jabs like the “wastebook” from then-U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) ridiculed any spending on research that didn’t translate directly to commercial use. But R&D work can go from suspect to practical very quickly. For example, consider research at the University of Maine’s Lobster Institute trying to see if an extract from lobsters might work to treat COVID-19. Or consider that 15 years ago, the Summer 2004 edition of Connection (now NEJHE) ran a short piece on an unpopular research lab being built by Boston University and the federal government in Boston’s densely settled South End to study dangerous germs like Ebola. The region was also a pioneer in community relations, and the neighborhood was tense about the dangers in its midst to say the least. But today, that lab’s role in the search for a coronavirus vaccine is much less controversial.

Advice for grads in a difficult year. This journal is inviting economists and other experts on “employability”  to weigh in on how COVID-19 will affect 2020’s college grads in New England. What does it mean for the college-educated labor market that has been another New England economic advantage historically?

Bath Iron Works will keep its employees at work.

Defense rests? One New England industry that is not shutting down due to COVID-19 is the defense industry. In Maine, General Dynamics Bath Iron Works ordered face masks for employees and expanded its sick time policy, but union leaders say the company isn’t doing enough to address coronavirus. More than 70 Maine lawmakers recently asked the company to consider closing temporarily to protect workers from the spread of the virus. But the Defense Department would have to instruct the shipyard to close, and Pentagon officials say it is a “Critical Infrastructure Industry.” About 17,000 people who work at the General Dynamics Electric Boat’s shipyards in Quonset Point, R.I., and Groton, Conn., are in the same boat, so to speak. They too have been told to keep reporting to work. In New London, a letter in The Day pleaded with Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont to shut down Electric Boat. Critical Infrastructure Industry. If only attack subs on schedule could help beat an “invisible enemy.”

John O. Harney is executive editor of The New England Journal of Higher Education.

Below, “Wong’s Pot with Old Flowers,” by Montserrat College Prof. Timothy Harney.

COVID-19 update from New England Council

From The New England Council (newenglandcouncil.com):

“As our region and our nation continue to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, The New England Council is using our blog as a platform to highlight some of the incredible work our members have undertaken to respond to the outbreak.  Each day, we’ll post a round-up of updates on some of the initiatives underway among Council members throughout the region.  We are also sharing these updates via our social media, and encourage our members to share with us any information on their efforts so that we can be sure to include them in these daily round-ups.

“You can also check our COVID-19 Virtual Events Calendar for information on upcoming COVID-19 related programming – including Congressional town halls and webinars presented by NEC members.

“Here is a roundup:

Medical Response

* Southern New Hampshire University Opens State’s First Hospital Overflow Space– A gym at Southern New Hampshire University’s campus in Manchester, NH, became the first “clinical flex area” in the state, holding as many as 250 beds as hospitalizations due to COVID-19 increase. The gym will be used by Catholic Medical Center and other area hospitals to accommodate patients who have improved or are not facing complications as a result of infection. The Union Leader has more.

• Dartmouth-Hitchcock Develops COVID-19 Test – Dartmouth-Hitchcock has developed and prepared for use its own test to screen for COVID-19 that can produce results in as few as six hours. At present, the team at Dartmouth-Hitchcock can run about 100 tests per day; the number is expected to increase to over 1,000 by next week. Read more in the Union Leader.

Economic/Business Continuity Response

• National Fire Protection Association Issues Reminder on Building Safety – As businesses around the world shutter to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) has issued new guidance to officials on the importance of building and fire safety regardless of occupancy. The NFPA stresses that essential safety measures should not be ignored as to avoid adding to the existing strain on emergency services. NFPA also included a list of recommendations to ensure safety even as buildings empty. Read the guidance here.

• General Electric Partners with Ford, 3M to Produce Protective Equipment for Healthcare Workers – General Electric (GE) is collaborating with Ford and 3M to speed up production of face masks, face shields, and other personal protective equipment (PPE) for workers directly working in fields affected by the novel coronavirus. In addition to this commitment to new PPE, General Electric has partnered with Ventech to increase production of ventilators. Investors

Community Response

• Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Commits Funds, Resources to Massachusetts Resiliency and Nonprofit Organizations –Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts (Blue Cross) has committed to aiding its community through $300,000 in donations to local non-profits and charities. . Ranging from donations to the Boston Resiliency Fund to online giving platforms for Pine Street Inn, the resources from Blue Cross will be deployed across Massachusetts to provide relief efforts to those in need. Read the press release here.

• AT&T Supports First Responders and Crisis Response – FirstNet, AT&T’s network designed specifically for emergency management and first responder personnel, has utilized its systems to optimize networks, support quarantine zones, and strengthen public safety’s command of connectivity as they communicate vital information. Read more.

“Stay tuned for more updates each day, and follow us on Twitter for more frequent updates on how Council members are contributing to the response to this global health crisis.’’

Ross Gittell/Bob Hieronymus: Trying to Improve pipeline from N.E. colleges to N.E. jobs

From the New England Journal of Higher Education, a service of the New England Board of Higher Education (nebhe.org)

England colleges and universities are often presented as a source of economic advantage in the New England states for providing a strong talent pool for regional employers. Yet, many state officials and others are questioning the efficacy of colleges and universities in serving regional labor market needs, as employers across New England are currently experiencing pronounced shortages of skilled workers.

Regional groups such as the New England Board of Higher Education (NEBHE), the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the New England Council (NEC) have key roles to play in addressing this challenge.

A so-called brain drain problem is frequently cited. This is cued in part by the relatively low percentages of New England high school graduates going to a college in their home states. All the New England states are in the bottom quintile in the percentages of high school graduates staying in state to go to college, all with percentages well below the national average of 72%–from a low of 36% in Vermont to a high of just 60% in Massachusetts (NICHE, 2017).

Also of concern is that the region’s colleges collectively have a high percentage–more than four of every 10–of their student population from out of state with inherently weaker connection to the state of college attendance and its labor market. The labor market perils are highlighted by data reported in November 2018 by the Chronicle of Higher Education that eight of the 10 four-year nonprofits with the highest out-of-state employment of graduates are in New England, and analysis identifying a strong positive correlation between New England college percentages of students from the region with percentages of graduates employed in the region. (See Figure 1.)

Yet, while New England high school graduates go to college out of state at high rates, they are very likely to stay within the region to go to college. More than three of every four New England high school students stay within the region to go to college, according to data from the labor market analytics firm Emsi on the fall 2016 entering freshman class, the latest figures available. This is well above the U.S. average for staying in state to go to college.

Notably, it is above that for the state of Texas, which, is among the top five states in the retention of high school students going to college but is more than three times the geographic size of the entire New England region (269,000 square miles compared with 72,000). This means that students staying in the New England region to go to college–even when going to college outside of their home state–can be much closer to their home towns and labor markets than a student staying in state in Texas.

Connecting New England college students to careers in the region

With over three-quarters of New England high school grads staying in the region to go to college, and the more than 24,000 students from outside the region starting college in the region as freshmen each year, the most important problem to address is not keeping high school graduates in state to go to college but rather it is more strongly connecting New England college students who are from the region and from outside the region to careers and employers in the region. One challenge, however, is that New England college students are highly dispersed across the region’s large and diverse higher education sector.

There are 33 colleges within the region with more than 1,000 New England high school grads as freshman students each year–from UMass-Amherst with 3,650, to Massachusetts Bay Community College with 1,006. These top destinations for New England college-goers, however, collectively account for less than one-half the total number of New England high graduates at New England colleges, and it is a diverse group.

All but one of the top college destinations for New England residents are public institutions. More than half (17) of the top 33 are community colleges, which are key institutions in connecting New England higher education with the economy. The other approximate half include all the public flagships, nine regional publics and one private college, Southern New Hampshire University (SNHU). Each of the 33 institutions counts over three-quarters of their total entering freshman students from New England, except SNHU, where about one-third are from the region.

Another group of 33 colleges in the region with notable numbers of New England high school grads as freshmen ranges from Johnson & Wales University with 986 to Husson University with 577. This second group is also widely dispersed across the region–from all the states in the region except for Vermont—but in contrast to the top 33 is dominated by private institutions (about two-thirds, 19). It also includes seven state universities and seven community colleges.

At the privates, the intermingling of New England high school graduates with out-of-region students is much higher than at the publics. Some private colleges in this second group have high percentages of their student body from New England (e.g., Worcester Polytechnic Institute and Providence College, each with over two-thirds). A New England-focused recruitment strategy could be effective at these colleges and help address the labor supply challenges that the region’s declining high school graduating classes presents, by working in a focused manner to have more high school graduates from the region stay in the region to work after college graduation.

At other private colleges, such as Harvard University and Boston University, the percentage of students from the region is much lower (21% at Harvard and 31% at B.U.). To add to the skilled labor supply, recruitment efforts at these colleges should have more of a focus on out-of-region student interests and their reasons for job selection, including for example, varied job and career paths and options after first placement.

The diverse and dispersed high education sector in New England means that it is difficult to base talent-recruitment efforts for New England college students from New England at any single college or in any one state or with just privates or publics or just at four-year colleges. The dispersion of the student population from outside the region is even wider absent the concentration at community colleges (99% of students from the region) and public four-year colleges (89% from the region).

Figure 1: Correlation % of Grads Employed in Region and % of Freshmen from Region at Selected New England Higher Education Institutions

Deep and broad regional approach needed

NEBHE convened the Commission on Higher Education & Employability in recognition of the need to take a regional approach to connecting high education to the economy in the region. The Strada-Gallup Education Consumer Survey in 2017 examined the main motivations driving college students’ decisions nationwide to pursue postsecondary education. Employment outcomes were the main motivation for higher education, with 58% reporting job and career outcomes as their primary reason. This is true across all higher education pathways and demographic subgroups. And the focus on work/job market outcomes often intensifies as college students get closer to graduation, and closer to having to pay off student debt and be on their own financially.

The commission appropriately identified as one of its priorities the provision of more robust and relevant New England local labor market information to college students in the region, to inform their career exploration and inform their job search and post-college job placement. This is consistent with higher education’s mission and role, particularly the public institutions.

There are tools available to better inform New England college students about career pathways/opportunities in New England and encourage college graduates in the region to stay in the region and be a stronger talent pool for employers in New England. One example is Emsi’s Career Coach.

Career Coach enables students to start with interest-based career exploration and then identify the programs at colleges that can set them on a path to accomplish their professional goals. As students navigate Career Coach, they are presented with key labor market data specific to their region, including wages, job growth, in-demand skills and live job postings from local and regional employers. For example, if a college student were to explore Career Coach for New England in November 2018, they would have information about occupations specifically in the region with the highest numbers of job postings–including software application developers, registered nurses, marketing managers, industrial engineers, management analysts, sales managers and accountants–and know specific information about the companies in the region recruiting and what the job requirements are and what the jobs pay. This helps New England college students to connect more strongly to the regional economy.

A New Hampshire model

The Community College System of New Hampshire (CCSNH) has adopted Career Coach. As part of its systemwide implementation, each of the state’s seven community colleges received its own website that matches their unique colors and branding. Each site displays labor market data specific to their service area and includes links to the host college’s program pages. Sharing the same core software also means that students across the state benefit from a consistent and familiar interface, regardless of which college’s site they visit. CCSNH also plans to integrate Career Coach with its enrollment and academic planning systems, leveraging the unique strengths of both platforms to provide students a comprehensive solution for challenges from career exploration to course registration.

Deploying technology and Web- and mobile-based info is a good start, but academic changes that will substantively and proactively help students engage with career exploration in New England is essential. For example, several New Hampshire community colleges have adopted an innovative first-year course called “Ethnography of Work,” originally developed by Guttman Community College in New York City.

In this course, students visit local employers, use Career Coach and apply principles of ethnography–observing, recording and analyzing a culture (in this case workplace) to produce a written account of an institution and the role, responsibilities and daily life of people (in this case, workers) at the institution–in their exploration of workplaces and future careers. The course provides strong academic based links of course work to practical career information and exploration and earns students transferable social science credits.

Inspired by the University of Hawaii system, New Hampshire colleges also plan to embed Career Coach into core English composition courses, where students will use it to develop and write about their career goals as they relate to employment opportunities in their local college area. And the CCSNH is also working with the state’s Department of Education, encouraging high school counselors and parents (along with students) to take advantage of this resource as they help students explore opportunities to continue learning and working, right in their own backyard. The goal is to facilitate early and broad adoption of tools like Career Coach that can help create stronger connection of high school and college students to the economy in the region.

New Hampshire’s approach suggests the value of having a central, consistent and comprehensive source of labor market and career-academic program information for all colleges and communities in New England. For the region, this would enable students to explore in detail academic programs aligned with their career aspirations and possibilities. It would help to address the outmigration of young talent to outside the region and strengthen the homegrown workforce pipeline to employment in the region. And it could also strengthen the connection of college students from outside the region to the regional economy as college students from outside the region explore career opportunities and connections with employers in their use of Career Coach and also in their curriculum and coursework.

Potential partnership possibilities with use of regionwide Career Coach could be supplemented with information and programing from NEBHE (for higher education information and Regional Student Program tuition break), the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (for economic info) and the New England Council (for business engagement and partnership).

There will be a need to complement the career coach-type efforts and related academic programing with business-connecting activities such as internships, apprenticeships and other work-based learning at regional employers. This is where the New England Council and other business organizations in the region could be very helpful.

Creative recruitment efforts–based on what we know about where New England high school grads attend college – are also needed. These efforts could include “New England Patriot” recruiting events and nights by regional employers specifically targeted to students who are from New England. Events could focus on students at different types of institutions, for example events focused on community college students in the region (with a focus on jobs requiring more technical and vocational specific training and education), or students at regional public universities (who are more likely to stay in the region than students attending the public flagships).

And there is the opportunity to make targeted effort to strengthen connections to the regional economy for the many students attending colleges in New England who are from outside the region. This could involve “New England career exploration/information” events targeted to students at New England colleges from outside the region. These events could be focused on the attributes of the region–its cultural and recreational resources–and also its diverse and large number of job and career possibilities in exciting and growing fields including biotech, regenerative medicine, advanced composite materials, robotics, data analytics and artificial intelligence to name just a few. And these events could be used in part on introducing different areas in the region to student populations that might not be aware of the opportunities outside of Boston, for example, in Providence, Portland, Burlington, Manchester, New London, Lowell and other mid- and smaller-sized cities in the region.

Many of these events–to address the diverse and dispersed higher ed sector in New England–should be multi-college, metro- or rural-wide area. It could be helpful if NEBHE, the Federal Reserve Bank or NEC hosted these events (or all three jointly hosted). Even when focusing on students from outside the region, it will be difficult for employers to focus on one college or in one state. For example, the top five destination colleges for students from outside the region (SNHU, B.U., Northeastern, Boston College and Harvard) together account for less than one of every six freshman students from outside the region.

What will remain to be done?

There will remain a need to address intra-regional brain drain as the more rural areas of New England do experience out-migration of young people from rural area college deserts to university and college centers. Special efforts will have to be made to “reconnect” college graduates from rural areas to the economies in their home communities. This could involve bringing talent plus jobs back to rural areas, with targeted effort to support students from rural areas in starting their business and bringing their start-ups “back” to their hometowns. Targeted effort could also be made to connect, students at colleges in rural areas to local economies. Efforts that include promotion of entrepreneurship at rural colleges, such as Dartmouth College’s Entrepreneurial Network, which include having college-launched businesses stay based locally, could serve as good models.

The region’s higher education institutions are only as strong a source of competitive advantage as are the connections among colleges and universities and their students to the businesses and industry in the region. A regionwide career coach with connections type approach, that strengthens the connectivity of college students and programs in the region to regional businesses and jobs, can help bolster the region’s economic future.

Ross Gittell is chancellor of the Community College System of New Hampshire. Bob Hieronymus is vice president of business development and partnerships at Emsi.

John O. Harney/James Martin/James E. Samels: Consolidating New England's excessive number of colleges and universities

Robert Frost Hall at Southern New Hampshire University's main campus in Manchester. The poet himself attended Dartmouth College and Harvard University but didn't graduate from either. He lived in New Hampshire for much of his life.

Via the New England Board of Higher Education (nebhe.org)

NEBHE has been deeply interested in how New England higher education institutions can collaborate with one another and with other leaders to confront threats to their economic sustainability. These threats stem partly from shifts in academic content and delivery, student demography and institutional finances—all set against the background of both rising expectations and eroding public perceptions of higher education. Through its Higher Education Innovation Challenge, NEBHE engaged institutional leaders in addressing head-on the critical issues of cost and economic sustainability, while developing analytical tools and convenings to help campuses survive and thrive.

Notably, NEBHE President and CEO Michael K. Thomas’s monograph "Between Collaboration and Merger: Expanding Alliance Strategies in Higher Education," explains how higher education leaders can apply lessons from strategic alliances in other industries to enhance college and university’s financial sustainability and competitive positioning—responding to the public demand to educate more students at lower cost without sacrificing quality. Thomas explores models of strategic alliances that find a “sweet spot” between common higher education consortia and full institutional mergers.

Here, James Martin and James E. Samels, explain their latest book, Consolidating Colleges and Merging Universities: New Strategies for Higher Education Leaders, published by Johns Hopkins University Press earlier this year.

In the following Q&A with  John O. Harney,  executive editor of NEBHE's New England Journal of Higher Education, the authors share their findings and explore some of the key reasons that more New England colleges and universities are now considering partnerships, co-ventures, and even mergers as strategic options.

Harney: Why do you believe now is the right time for this book?

Martin and Samels: "Simply said, it is increasingly difficult to ignore the many news flashes, press releases and higher ed conversations focused on institutional partnerships, mergers and closures. Here in New England with some of our states offering, per-capita, the largest number of colleges and universities in the nation, there are too many colleges for too few students. We believe that this region will continue to see a rising number of schools beginning to work formally toward partnerships that leverage their resources and combine their curricula, personnel and infrastructure. Some institutions will enter into strategic alliances, and some will move straight to considerations of merger. Others will decide to close.''

Harney: "Even with, as you say 'too many' higher education institutions in New England, many students still appear not to find access or success in higher education. Do you see a way to address this conundrum?''

Martin and Samels: "Yes, our book looked at this issue, and while Consolidating Colleges and Merging Universities focuses principally on the leadership decisions involved in developing and sustaining new and familiar models of partnership and merger, we also explored a number of the reasons driving, even forcing, some schools to collaborate. The impact of collaborations on current and future students was also considered, as well as how faculty and administrative leaders can support student needs more effectively.''

"One recommendation would be to develop Early College programs that more effectively align students' career interests and aptitude levels with available curricula. Strategic programming in this area can help undergraduates avoid becoming lost during the critical first-year experience.

"Another suggestion would be to emphasize the value of vocational career opportunities. Massachusetts Secretary of Education James Peyser, for example, has spoken persuasively about the value of vocational-technical, and agricultural, programs, and he is candid about the need for higher education to find new ways to support vocational career paths.''

Harney: "New England is also shifting in terms of its demography. The region is aging, and it’s welcoming populations that have been underserved by higher ed historically? How could higher education partnerships, strategic alliances or even mergers effectively engage these groups that have not participated fully in higher ed?''

Martin and Samels: "As a start, public and private colleges could jointly dedicate more time and resources to defining their audiences and developing new programs, degree and otherwise, to address their needs.

"As one example, New England is currently experiencing a surge in the growth of the number of Latino students, and this trend is not likely to reverse itself anytime soon. In response, public, private and even for-profit institutions could formally partner, where requested or needed, with clusters of community colleges to create collaborative programs that form bridges to facilitate academic achievement.''

Harney: "Another key market is adult students. What do you think of Purdue’s acquisition of Kaplan with its generally older student body?''

Martin and Samels: "No matter what concerns one may have about this concept, we believe that it will occur in other regions, including our own, with greater frequency. Clearly, there are numerous issues that will need to be addressed, but management agreements of multiple types will begin to emerge as, for one example, a for-profit partner might allocate expanded resources to enrollment and marketing while a traditional public or independent partner could provide a larger share of the curricula and teaching faculty.

"As noted, there are complexities to work through, but entrepreneurial institutions will work through them if broader goals of mission enhancement, market share and sustainability can be achieved.''

Harney: "We are hearing more about regional 'clusters' of colleges and universities that cross state lines. What is your view of the feasibility of partnerships involving institutions in two or even three different states?''

Martin and Samels: "It appears that state lines may not be meaningful in terms of partnership and merger planning going forward. Rather, colleges and universities that share a will to innovate, a complementary—rather than simply similar—structure, and compatible student market-shares, no matter where they reside, will have the best chances to prosper. We believe that groups of institutions across the region, perhaps without realizing they are motioning closer together, are going to identify specific areas in which to partner and share resources over the coming 24 to 36 months.''

Harney: "What is the future for partnerships of any kind between public and private colleges and universities … and even for-profits in the case of Kaplan? How might they work and why?''

Martin and Samels: "In the book, we write about institutional asset transfers that can serve as "mergers without merging," so to speak. These can readily cross traditional public-private lines if planners are committed to shared goals. Colleges and universities that, at least initially, view full merger as out of the question may still develop agreements to share marketing resources, faculty teaching expertise, and classroom and library facilities, as examples.'

"The recent history of Daniel Webster College, in New Hampshire,  is in some ways reflective of the drive to partner and create larger, stronger institutions. In the span of just a few years, Daniel Webster went from being a freestanding private college to part of the ITT Educational Services Inc. for-profit enterprise and now to part of Southern New Hampshire University (SNHU) via a 'Teach-Out and Program Articulation Agreement.' Under this agreement, as of the end of the 2016-17 academic year, 'SNHU will accept all Daniel Webster students who meet the minimum admission requirements for all subsequent coursework offered through SNHU, 'has outlined on the SNHU Web site.''

Harney: "As you know, we have reported on institutional closings over the years, in part through our Higher Education Innovation Challenge. Which kinds of New England colleges are most vulnerable? How can they avert closing?''

Martin and Samels: "New England colleges and universities most vulnerable to closure typically:

"Are small—with 2,500 students or fewer

"Are more than 85 percent tuition-dependent

"Have aging campus infrastructure with continuing signs of deferred maintenance

"Have rising student default rates

"Show excessive family tuition debt burden

"Have spiraling tuition discount rate

"Are religiously affiliated.

''We would also add that not all institutions in the region with one or several of these signifiers is headed toward closure. Rather, institutional leaders now studying this list and acknowledging that it describes their college or university, perhaps accurately, can undertake numerous plans for success. Our research suggests that one of the most effective is to develop a strategic alliance and co-venturing plan with a willing partner institution. As someone recently described it, 'Pick a dance partner before the music ends."'