Candace Williams: On the affordability of New England's colleges and universities

Via the New England Board of Higher Education (nebhe.org)

The affordability of public colleges and universities, whose primary mission is to serve state residents, is top-of-mind for students and parents, institutional leaders and state policymakers. NEBHE's 2016-17 tuition & fees report "New England Fast Facts: The Price of Public Colleges in New England, 2016-17'' shows that since fall 2011, tuition and required fees have risen 16% at community colleges and 18% at 4-year institutions. Over that same period, enrollment in the region’s public institutions has fallen by 3.5%—a trend that is expected to continue due to a projected 14% decline in the number of new high school graduates in New England by 2032.

State and institutional financial aid awards seek to lower the sticker price of college. While individual financial aid packages vary, at least one program is fairly easy to predict and summarize: the federal Pell Grants. On average, Pell Grants continue to cover tuition and fees for students in the lowest income quintile in New England who are enrolled at community colleges. At the 4-year level, Pell Grants covered 60% of tuition and fees for students in the lowest income quintile in 2007-08. Today, the maximum Pell Grant pays for about half of a year’s tuition and fees at 4-year institutions.

These trends are forcing institutions and systems to get creative to ensure affordability for students, maintain enrollment and meet the needs of regional employers, who increasingly demand workers with postsecondary credentials.

In New Hampshire, a state known for its high in-state tuition prices, tuition has been frozen at community colleges. Meanwhile, the University of New Hampshire introduced the Granite Guarantee, which will provide free tuition to any full-time freshmen who are eligible for Pell Grants.

Rhode Island, with the leadership of Gov. Gina Raimondo, successfully passed a free college proposal for students entering the Community College of Rhode Island, beginning in fall 2017.

Maine, which consistently has the lowest in-state tuition rates in New England, has launched an effort, known as the Flagship Match, to extend competitive out-of-state tuition rates to residents of the five other New England states, as well as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California.

Nevertheless, budget shortfalls continue to jeopardize state’s efforts to address college affordability. Maine is expected to raise tuition in 2018 for the first time in over six years, while higher education leaders in Massachusetts and Connecticut wrestle with budget and tuition constraints.

Candace Williams is NEBHE's associate director of policy & research.

Candace Williams: Number of new high-school grads in N.E. seen falling 14% by 2032

Marker commemorating the first location of the Boston Latin School, on School Street, founded in 1635 and the first public school in what would become the United States.

By 2032, the number of new high school graduates in New England is projected to decline by 22,000 to a total 140,273, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s (WICHE) most recent ''Knocking at the College Door'' report.

New England’s challenge with an aging population and falling birth rates has been well chronicled. With fresh projections and an ever-changing political climate, the number of high schoolers expected to graduate in the region – from a public or private high – warrants a much closer look. So does the changing demography of the graduating class, with the number of white high school graduates projected to fall by 25%, while the number of minority graduates rises significantly

Overall, the number of new high school graduates in New England is projected to decline by 14%. Within the region, Connecticut and New Hampshire face the greatest declines, with the number of new high school graduates in both states expected to decrease by 20% by 2032. The majority of graduates, currently 87%, of high schoolers in New England, attend a public high school. However, a greater share of students attends private school in this region than the rest of the nation. Whereas a projected 7% of students will graduate from a private secondary school nationally by 2032, nearly 12% of New Englanders will.

Fewer white students being born in the region can explain much of the decline in graduates in New England. During the period 2016-2032, the number of white high school graduates is projected to fall by 25%. Over that same tperiod, the number of minority graduates will increase significantly—by 46% among Hispanics, 7% among blacks , 2% among American Indian/Alaska Natives and a 37% among Asian/Pacific Islanders.

Nationally, for every 10 white graduates lost, eight minority graduates are gained. In New England, this is not the case. For every 10 white students lost, just four minority graduates are gained. Nonetheless, by 2032, 45% of high school graduates in the region will be minority.

The implication of fewer high school graduates pose real challenges to higher education institutions, both public and private, as well the regional economy. The region’s population decline has other implications including fewer congressional representatives, who have often been champions of public higher education.

Candace Williams isassociate director of policy & research for the New England Board of Higher Education, on whose Web site, nebhe.org, this piece first appeared.