Sheridan Miller: Decline in number of new high-school graduates could hurt New England’s economy
At Providence’s prestigious (despite its ugly Brutalist architecture) Classical High School
From The New England Journal of Higher Education, a service of The New England Board of Higher Education (nebhe.org)
BOSTON
The number of new high-school graduates in New England is expected to shrink by nearly 13 percent by 2037, according to the 10th edition of Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, released this week by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
Published by WICHE every four years, Knocking at the College Door is a widely recognized source of data and projections more than 15 years forward on the high school graduate populations for all 50 states.
The latest edition includes projections of high-school graduates through the Class of 2037. The data include estimates for the U.S., regions, and the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for public and private high-school graduates, as well as a forecast of public high-school graduation rates by race/ethnicity.
Among key findings, NEBHE’s analysis of the report finds that, by 2037:
The number of new high-school graduates in New England is expected to decline from 170,000 to 148,490, a 12.7 percent decrease.
The number of public high-school graduates in the region is projected to fall by 11 percent, while the much smaller number of students graduating from New England’s private high schools will shrink by 23 percent.
The region’s high schoolers will continue to become increasingly diverse. Over the next 16 years, the number of white high-school graduates will decline by 29 percent, while Black high-school graduates will increase by 7 percent, Hispanics by 54 percent, Asian and Pacific Islanders by 18 percent, and those who identify as two or more races by 42 percent.
New England’s challenges with an aging population and falling birth rates has been well chronicled. With these new projections and declining state revenues (to say nothing of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which the report does not calculate), the number of public and private high schoolers expected to graduate in the region calls for a closer examination. High-school graduation rates are an especially important indicator of college matriculation and future success. We know that the more education that people have, the more likely they are to have a family-sustaining wage. If high-school graduation rates are declining in the region, this suggests that college graduation rates will do the same and have far-reaching effects on the success of individuals and our region’s economic competitiveness.
The projected overall decline in the number of New England’s high-school graduates will be largely driven by significant declines in Connecticut, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, as each state is projected to see a decline of 18 percent. The initial decline in the region’s number of high-school graduates is expected to be modest, with much steeper drops projected to occur after 2025.
Projected regional graduation declines from 2019 suggest:
From 2019 to 2020, the number of high-school graduates in the region fell by 0.3 percent.
Between 2019 and 2025, this group is projected to shrink by 0.5 percent.
Between 2019 and 2030, the number of high school graduates in New England is projected to drop by 8 percent.
Between 2019 and 2037, the number of graduates is projected to drop by 12.7 percent.
With the number of high-school graduates expected to fall significantly across New England in the next decade and a half, legislators, educators and leaders in higher education must act proactively to make sure we can mitigate the impact of these declines in our region.
Public and private high schools
Overall, New England public and private high-school graduates constitute 4.5 percent of all high-school graduates in the U.S. New England has a higher percentage of private high school graduates than the rest of the nation. In fact, even though New England comprises a small proportion of the total U.S. population, the region’s private-school graduates made up 7 percent of all private-school graduates in the U.S. in 2020. New England public-school graduates made up only 4 percent of the nation’s total. By 2037, the region’s public high schools are projected to see an 11 percent decline in the number of graduates, and the data anticipate a larger decline of 23 percent among private high schools.
Diversity, equity and inclusion
As mentioned above, because New England’s high-school student population is predominantly white, much of the average decline that is projected to occur over the next 16 years can be explained by the decline of white student graduates and the region’s increasing diversification. Between 2020 and 2037, the number of New England’s white student high-school graduates is expected to decline by 29 percent. Nationally, the number of white graduates during this same period is expected to decline by 19 percent.
By comparison, the number of minoritized high school graduates in New England is expected to increase slightly across certain demographic groups, with the number of Black high school graduates rising by 7 percent over the next 16 years, the number of Hispanic graduates growing by 54 percent, Asian and Pacific Islander graduates growing by 18 percent, and graduates who identity as two or more races growing by 42 percent.
Additionally, the number of Alaska Native and American Indian high- school graduates in New England is expected to decline by 35 percent over the next 16 years. Though this group represents a small fraction of New England’s high-school student population, it is critical that education leaders and policymakers support these students.
As we continue to think about our roles in furthering equity, it is important to remember that our education system has historically been set up to cater to white students. As our student population becomes more diverse, we should focus on learning how best to support students of color while preparing educators in primary, secondary and higher education who also reflect the changing demographics of our students in the region.
Among the many significant implications of WICHE’s report for educators, legislators and higher education leaders, the projected decline in high-school graduates will have long-term effects on the rates of higher-education enrollment in New England and beyond. While this is bad news for the vast majority of the region’s postsecondary institutions that are enrollment-driven, the projected declines could also hurt our regional economy, as fewer individuals will be able to compete for good-paying jobs that require an education beyond high school and eventually fewer employers may be drawn to the region for its educated labor. Additionally, it is critical to consider the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic—both in the short- and long-terms—on high-school graduation rates and individuals’ decisions about whether to pursue higher education.
NEBHE will be answering questions about the implications of WICHE’s report in a Webinar in the New Year. More details to come soon.
Sheridan Miller is coordinator of state policy engagement at NEBHE.